Aman's Global Market Intelligence

1 · Executive dashboard

PPI gate at 14:30 Italy

Regime call: selective risk-on, capped by event and geopolitical risk. In-line CPI, falling volatility, broad small-cap strength and a powerful AI-infrastructure rally improved risk appetite; Asia followed, led by Korea. But index futures were only marginally positive, the 10-year yield remained near 4.68%, oil stayed elevated, and Cisco/Cerebras post-close reactions showed that expectations are unforgiving. Inference: participate through confirmation, not by chasing Wednesday's 19–34% gaps.

S&P 5007,748.50+0.26% Wed

Nasdaq Composite26,588.49+0.54%

Dow Jones53,770.27−0.04%

Russell 20003,045.48+0.61%

VIX14.55Aug. 12 close

U.S. 2Y4.191%06:32 UTC live

U.S. 10Y4.682%06:32 UTC live

Dollar index99.93Reuters live

WTI$82.58−0.83% Reuters snapshot

Spot gold$4,419.28+0.28%

Market	Latest / move	Session represented	Read-through
S&P 500 Sep future	7,779.00 · +0.11%	CNBC/CME delayed, 08:22 CEST	Positive but no strong overnight edge
Nasdaq-100 Sep future	29,897 · +0.15%	CNBC/CME delayed, 08:22 CEST	AI momentum partly offsets CSCO/CBRS weakness
Nikkei 225	about +1.86%	Live Reuters snapshot	Strong risk appetite; BOJ repricing is a counterweight
Kospi	about +4.4%	Live Reuters snapshot	Samsung/SK Hynix led AI rebound
MSCI Asia ex-Japan	+0.97%	Live Reuters snapshot	Broad regional follow-through
Hang Seng	25,457.33 · +0.07%	CNN latest displayed snapshot	Lagged Japan/Korea; Tencent fell after results
Shanghai Composite	3,963.15 · +0.42%	CNN latest displayed snapshot	Modest gain
ASX 200	about −0.12%	CNBC live snapshot	Regional laggard
Europe	Pre-open at cutoff	No cash session represented	Do not treat prior closes as current

1 · CPI relieved, not resolved

Confirmed: July CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y; core rose 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Markets cut September hike odds to about 40%. Inference: the hurdle for duration assets eased, but August energy pass-through and today's PPI keep rates risk alive.

2 · AI demand met a valuation test

SMCI +19.02%, CRWV +19.28%, NVDA +3.03%, MU +4.92%, DELL +9.87% and NBIS +34.14%. Yet Cisco fell about 4% after hours despite a strong guide, and Cerebras fell about 16% after missing revenue estimates. Strong demand is confirmed; indiscriminate multiple expansion is not.

3 · Oil remains the macro spoiler

WTI/Brent eased in Reuters' Asian snapshot but remained near $82.58/$88.35 as U.S.–Iran negotiations showed no progress. Inference: benign July CPI can be overtaken if the Gulf conflict produces sustained energy pass-through.

2 · Market-moving analysis

Facts separated from inference

Macro, central banks & rates

BLS fact: shelter +0.1% accounted for roughly two-thirds of July's monthly CPI increase; energy fell 1.5%, gasoline fell 2.9%, and services less energy rose 0.2%.
Fed pricing: Reuters reported about a 40% September hike probability, down from 54% a week earlier. This is market pricing, not a forecast or commitment.
Treasury fact: official Aug. 12 closes were 4.20% (2Y) and 4.68% (10Y), down 2 bp each from Aug. 11. Live Tradeweb/CNBC at cutoff showed 4.191% and 4.682%.
Japan: July wholesale prices rose 7.2% y/y, reinforcing speculation about a September BOJ hike; USD/JPY was near 159.32. Earlier tightening and intervention risk can tighten global financial conditions.
Today: July PPI and claims at 08:30 ET. Friday brings retail sales and Michigan sentiment. The 08:30 Italy report cannot incorporate those results.

Geopolitics, breadth & rotation

Eight of eleven S&P sectors rose Wednesday; technology led at about +1%, while consumer discretionary, materials and communication services fell.
Russell 2000 gained 0.61% and printed a fresh 52-week high on CNBC's feed, while the VIX closed 14.55. This supports broader risk appetite beyond one mega-cap.
U.S.–Iran talks remained deadlocked and Iran rejected a U.S. claim of control over Hormuz. Oil eased only modestly. This is a continuing supply-risk channel.
Korea's Kospi entered a technical bull market from its July 30 low, according to CNBC/LSEG, but a one-day 4% move creates chase risk.
Inference: breadth and lower volatility support selective longs, while oil/rates and sharp post-earnings punishments argue against high-beta leverage.

AI: verified demand signals

Cisco: FY27 revenue guide $72.2–73.4B exceeded the $68.69B LSEG estimate. Q4 revenue grew 17.6% to $17.25B; hyperscaler AI orders were $4B in Q4 and $9.3B for FY26. FY27 AI-infrastructure order revenue is seen at $7.5B.
Cisco counterweight: Q1 adjusted gross-margin guide of 65–66% was slightly below 66.1% consensus; shares fell over 4% after hours after rising 2.86% in cash trading.
Cerebras: Q2 revenue rose 74.3% to $180.11M but missed $194.23M consensus; adjusted gross margin fell to 40.6% from 46.5% sequentially. Hardware revenue declined y/y. Shares fell about 16% after hours despite higher annual guidance.
NVIDIA: official Aug. 10 release confirms MOUs with six institutions intended to mobilize over $500B of third-party AI-infrastructure capital. Final agreements remain outstanding. Earnings are Aug. 26.

Focused company checks

IonQ primary data: Q2 revenue $80.1M (+287% y/y), FY26 revenue guide $280–290M, pro-forma post-SkyWater cash/investments $2.0B; adjusted EBITDA loss $120.3M and GAAP net loss $1.868B, heavily affected by warrant remeasurement. Scale and loss risk coexist.
Peptide: no new same-cutoff pivotal focused release was identified. Lilly's established Phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 data showed 28.3% mean weight loss at 80 weeks for retatrutide 12 mg using the efficacy estimand; this is prior evidence, not new overnight news.
Focused closes: LLY +0.43%, NVO −1.65%, VKTX +0.65%; quantum pure plays IONQ +4.05%, RGTI +1.82%, QBTS +2.52%.
Inference: AI has the strongest current price/fundamental catalyst; peptide biotech lacks a fresh overnight binary event; quantum remains an execution-and-valuation debate rather than a same-day catalyst trade.

3 · Theme dashboards

AI / data centers Demand confirmed

Leaders: SMCI, CRWV, NBIS, DELL, MU and NVDA on Wednesday.
Overnight laggards: CSCO and CBRS despite demand/guidance positives—expectations and margins mattered.
Stack: compute financing, servers, HBM, networking, optics, power and cooling retain visible demand.
Risk: valuation, debt/capex, customer concentration, gross margins, working capital, export controls and power availability.
Next: AMAT after today's close; NVDA Aug. 26.

Quantum computing Revenue improving, losses large

IonQ has the strongest verified focused update: $80.1M Q2 revenue and raised guide, but a $120.3M adjusted EBITDA loss.
Wednesday's IONQ/RGTI/QBTS gains were positive price action, not proof of commercial inflection for the entire basket.
Diversified IBM/MSFT/NVDA exposure remains structurally lower-risk than pure plays; IonQ's SkyWater integration adds vertical-integration upside and execution risk.
Risk: technical roadmaps, lumpy contracts, acquisitions, warrant accounting, stock compensation, dilution and extreme volatility.

Peptide / metabolic biotech No fresh binary catalyst

LLY reclaimed $1,220.28; NVO fell to $46.39 and VKTX edged to $34.02.
Lilly combines commercial peptide leadership with Phase 3 retatrutide optionality. TRIUMPH-1 met primary/key secondaries, but retatrutide remains investigational.
For smaller developers, trial discontinuations, tolerability, dose-response, cash runway and financing matter as much as headline weight loss.
Risk: GI tolerability/safety, payer access, manufacturing, competition, regulatory delay and binary data.

4 · Ranked ideas

Conditional paper-tracking; Confidence is evidence quality, not win probability

#1 LLY · Eli Lilly Conditional bullish

NYSE · mega-cap profitable peptide/metabolic leader · medium-high valuation and clinical/access risk

Day trade: secondary1–4 weeks: applicable above confirmation3–12+ months: applicable

Uncertain direction / thesis: reclaiming $1,220 restores the prior setup, and commercial execution plus retatrutide optionality support relative quality; rates or premium-multiple compression can still dominate.

Catalyst / evidence: prior verified Q2 revenue +48% and raised FY guide; Phase 3 TRIUMPH-1 12 mg mean weight loss 28.3% at 80 weeks under the efficacy estimand.

Counterargument: pricing/access pressure, competition, tolerability, supply and a high valuation leave little room for disappointment.

Entry / confirmation: hold above $1,220 after PPI, or a controlled test of $1,200 followed by recovery; avoid chasing an opening gap.

Invalidation / downside: close below $1,184, estimate cuts, adverse safety/regulatory signal, payer deterioration or manufacturing shortfall.

Key risks: competition, reimbursement, pipeline concentration, clinical statistics not translating across trials, and interest-rate sensitivity.

Confidence

Risk

Opportunity

#2 NVDA · NVIDIA Bullish on retest

Nasdaq · mega-cap AI compute/networking · earnings, valuation, export and capex-cycle risk

Day trade: post-PPI only1–4 weeks: applicable on retest3–12+ months: applicable, sized for volatility

Uncertain direction / thesis: Wednesday's 3.03% gain and broad infrastructure evidence improve momentum; earnings proximity and an extended AI tape make chase entries unattractive.

Evidence / catalyst: Aug. 10 primary release confirms financing-platform MOUs targeting over $500B; Cisco, CoreWeave and server results support demand. Aug. 26 earnings are the major gate.

Counterargument: MOUs are subject to final agreements; customer financing can shift credit risk rather than eliminate it, while expectations are very high.

Entry / confirmation: successful hold/retest of $220–224 after PPI, with semiconductors retaining relative strength; do not chase toward the $236.54 52-week high.

Invalidation / downside: close below $216, weak order/supply/margin commentary, financing-platform slippage or adverse export restrictions.

Key risks: concentration, export controls, competition, customer capex, HBM supply, power constraints and earnings-gap risk.

Confidence

Risk

Opportunity

#3 CRWV · CoreWeave Avoid chasing · not a short

Nasdaq · high-risk AI cloud · leverage, capex, concentration and squeeze risk

Day trade: avoid 19% gap chase1–4 weeks: wait for base3–12+ months: financing watch

Uncertain direction / thesis: price can continue higher on demand, but Wednesday's 19.28% rise already repriced much of the catalyst while equity economics remain capital-intensive.

Evidence / catalyst: Q2 revenue $2.575B (+112%), backlog ~$104B plus over $25B early-Q3 commitments.

Counterargument: Q2 GAAP net loss $626M, net interest $640M and FY capex guide $35–39B leave heavy financing sensitivity.

Confirmation: constructive consolidation above the gap, funded capex, lower financing burden and credible free-cash conversion.

Invalidation / downside: avoid stance weakens with durable positive free cash flow; long thesis fails on financing stress, backlog slippage or customer loss.

Key risks: debt/refinancing, dilution, concentration, GPU supply, power delivery, utilization and squeeze. No borrow claim.

Confidence

Risk

Opportunity

#4 CBRS · Cerebras Systems Avoid / wait · not a short

Nasdaq · newly public, high-risk AI chip/cloud company · valuation, customer and earnings-gap risk

Day trade: unsuitable after gap1–4 weeks: wait for price discovery3–12+ months: milestone watch

Uncertain direction / thesis: higher annual guidance may attract dip buyers, but the revenue miss, lower sequential margin and after-hours fall reveal a fragile valuation.

Evidence: Q2 revenue $180.11M versus $194.23M consensus; adjusted gross margin 40.6% versus 46.5% in Q1; hardware revenue fell y/y.

Counterargument: cloud revenue roughly quadrupled, FY revenue guide rose to $880–890M and adjusted loss narrowed.

Confirmation: stabilize after the post-result gap, demonstrate hardware recovery and margin progression; no blind opening-bell entry.

Invalidation / downside: avoid stance changes after repeatable estimate beats and improving margins; downside worsens with customer/adoption slippage.

Key risks: recent IPO, limited public history, OpenAI concentration, manufacturing scale, TSMC dependence, competition and volatility.

Confidence

Risk

Opportunity

#5 RGTI / QBTS quantum basket Avoid chasing · speculative

Nasdaq/NYSE · venture-like public equities · small/mid-cap, dilution and squeeze risk

Day trade: unsuitable for most1–4 weeks: no clean evidence edge3–12+ months: funded-milestone watch

Uncertain direction / thesis: AI-led risk appetite can carry the basket, but Wednesday's gains were not paired with a newly verified same-day commercial milestone.

Evidence / counter: government interest and technical progress are positives; small/lumpy revenue, losses and distant roadmaps are negatives.

Confirmation: recurring funded commercial awards, independently verified performance milestones and improving gross economics.

Invalidation / downside: avoid stance changes with material recurring revenue and operating leverage; roadmap failure or financing can cause severe drawdowns.

Key risks: dilution/warrants, contract timing, technical failure, competition, volatility and squeezes.

Short warning: this is not a short call; no representation is made about borrow availability or fees.

Confidence

Risk

Opportunity

Watchlist · five maximum

SMCI Strong catalyst, extended

Nasdaq · high-risk AI systems · C/R/O 78/90/58. Wednesday +19.02% to $37.61 after clearing the prior $32 confirmation. The paper call worked, but a fresh chase does not. Wait for a base/retest; below $35 weakens momentum. Preliminary reporting, negative FY cash flow, working capital and export-review risk remain.

CSCO Post-earnings reset

Nasdaq · large-cap networking · C/R/O 79/69/61. FY27 guide and $9.3B FY26 hyperscaler AI orders confirm demand; after-hours −4% shows margin/high-expectation risk. Watch the first-hour range and only consider a reclaim after PPI. Hardware mix, components and valuation are key.

IONQ Best pure-play evidence

NYSE · speculative quantum · C/R/O 76/94/52. Q2 revenue +287% and raised guide are real; $120.3M adjusted EBITDA loss and SkyWater integration keep risk extreme. Investor Day Sep. 8 is the next major company gate. No gap chasing.

NVO Needs stabilization

NYSE ADR · large-cap peptide/metabolic · C/R/O 70/72/55. Wednesday −1.65% to $46.39. Require a reclaim of $47 and estimate stabilization. Risks: competition, pricing/access, trial execution, supply and currency.

AMAT Earnings tonight

Nasdaq · large-cap semiconductor equipment · C/R/O 73/75/56. Wednesday +4.29% to $548.15. No pre-result chase. Watch foundry/logic, memory, advanced packaging, China/export exposure, orders, gross margin and guide. Earnings gaps can be large.

5 · Changes versus Aug. 12

Regime: upgraded from neutral/risk-off skew to selective risk-on/event-capped after in-line CPI, VIX at 14.55, Russell +0.61%, U.S. AI breadth and a strong Asian follow-through.
SMCI paper call: the prior condition was a sustained reclaim of $32 after CPI. SMCI closed $37.61 (+19.02%), so the confirmation triggered and the move was favorable; it now moves off the ranked bullish list to watch because reward/risk worsened after the gap. This is paper tracking, not realized performance.
LLY: rose 0.43% to $1,220.28 and recovered the prior $1,220 confirmation zone; it becomes ranked bullish #1, still conditional on holding after PPI.
NVDA: rose 3.03% to $224.09, reaching the prior confirmation area. Official NVIDIA IR now confirms the financing MOUs, correcting yesterday's primary-source limitation. It becomes conditional bullish #2, preferably on retest.
CRWV avoid-chase: shares rose 19.28%, moving sharply against any bearish interpretation; yesterday explicitly said “not a short.” The avoid-chase discipline remains because valuation/financing risk and extension increased.
Quantum avoid basket: RGTI/QBTS gained 1.82%/2.52%, again moving against an immediate bearish read. The stance remains avoid chasing, not a directional short. IONQ is separated into watch because its Q2 primary evidence is stronger than the basket's.
New: Cerebras enters avoid/wait after a revenue miss and approximately 16% after-hours decline; Cisco enters watch after a strong guide but weaker margin expectations and a roughly 4% after-hours fall.

6 · Important 7–30 day catalysts

Times ET unless stated; verify near event

Aug. 13 · 08:30 — U.S. July PPI + weekly claims

Immediate rates/valuation gate; unavailable at this report's cutoff.

Aug. 13 · after close — Applied Materials results

Foundry/logic, HBM/memory, advanced packaging, China/export exposure and margins.

Aug. 14 — U.S. retail sales + Michigan sentiment

Consumer resilience and inflation expectations amid elevated oil.

Aug. 18 — Import/export prices

Trade-price inflation channel.

Aug. 19 — FOMC minutes; IonQ at Needham conference

Policy detail plus quantum management commentary; not a guaranteed new disclosure.

Aug. 26 — NVIDIA FY27 Q2 results

Compute/networking demand, supply, financing, export exposure, margins and customer concentration.

Sep. 8 — IonQ Investor Day

SkyWater integration, roadmap, commercial mix, cash use and long-term targets.

Through Sep. 11 — Focused peptide verification window

Monitor Lilly/Novo/Viking IR, FDA/EMA and trial registries. No unverified PDUFA date is asserted.

7 · Bottom line by horizon

Current session / day trade

Wait for PPI. Afterward, favor NVDA/LLY retest-and-hold setups over yesterday's 19–34% gap leaders. CSCO is a post-earnings price-discovery watch, not an opening-bell assumption. Avoid chasing SMCI, CRWV, NBIS and CBRS volatility.

1–4 week swing

LLY first, NVDA second—conditional. LLY must hold $1,220/$1,200; NVDA should hold $220–224. Keep size smaller into NVDA earnings. SMCI needs consolidation and cash-flow skepticism remains warranted.

3–12+ month investment

Prefer cash-generative leaders. LLY and NVDA provide higher-quality thematic exposure. Treat CRWV, CBRS and quantum pure plays as non-core until financing, recurring revenue and operating leverage are better demonstrated.

Biggest risk: PPI or August energy pass-through reaccelerates inflation while Gulf supply risk persists, pushing yields and oil higher together. Risk-on validation: benign PPI, 10Y below 4.65%, positive breadth and orderly AI consolidation. Invalidation / downgrade: 10Y above 4.80%, WTI above $85, VIX back above 17, or broad failure of Wednesday's AI gaps. These are decision markers, not predictions.

Sources & data quality

Data-quality panel

U.S. index closes came from CNBC's exchange-fed quote service and were cross-checked with CNN/CNBC reporting. Focused stock closes came from Nasdaq's API. Futures were CNBC/CME delayed snapshots around 08:22 CEST; live Treasury yields were CNBC/Tradeweb around 08:32 CEST.
Asian figures are live/near-close, not final for every venue. Reuters and CNBC supplied regional direction. Europe had not opened by cutoff, so no current cash-market values are invented.
Official Treasury CSV confirms Aug. 12 closes of 4.20% (2Y) and 4.68% (10Y). BLS is primary for CPI. Company IR is primary for NVIDIA, IonQ and Lilly clinical evidence; Reuters supplied Cisco/Cerebras result context and LSEG estimates.
Yahoo chart API failed with HTTP 429. Stooq's attempted multi-symbol CSV path returned HTTP 404. FRED CSV timed out; official Treasury succeeded. No unavailable dashboard field was filled from a failed source.
Focused peptide searches found no same-cutoff pivotal overnight release. The Lilly retatrutide result is dated May 21 and is included as standing evidence, clearly not fresh news.
Technical levels are conditional reference zones derived from recent closes/ranges, not guarantees. Confidence scores measure evidence quality; Risk is higher when riskier; Opportunity is conditional attractiveness, not probability of profit.